An analytical study of the wheat crop in the Arab Republic of Egypt using the policy analysis matrix

In recent years, agricultural policy in Egypt has tended to bring about some structural changes with the aim of maximizing economic returns in light of technical capabilities and economic and local determinants. Therefore, the research aimed to study the general temporal development of the cultivated area, production, productivity, availability for consumption, average per capita share, and self-sufficiency of the wheat crop in the Arab Republic of Egypt. It also dealt with the agricultural policy matrix for the wheat crop during the period (2005 - 2021).
The results showed that there was a general, statistically significant increasing trend for both the cultivated area and total wheat production during the study period
The results of the analysis of the agricultural policy matrix for the wheat crop showed that the nominal protection factor reached about (1.02), and this indicates that the state during that period was subsidizing the price of the wheat crop locally with the aim of encouraging wheat producers to increase production of it, while the nominal protection factor for production inputs reached About (0.68), meaning that the government was providing implicit support to wheat producers. On the other hand, the value of the effective protection factor for the wheat crop was about (1.10), and this indicates that the state was providing implicit support to wheat producers by supporting the farm price of wheat with the aim of encouraging wheat producers to increase production to achieve a greater degree of self-sufficiency.
The results showed that the value of the local resource cost factor (the comparative advantage factor) for the period (2005-2021) was equivalent to about 0.60, and this indicates the existence of a comparative advantage for producing wheat locally, which means that producing it locally is better than importing it from both the economic and strategic standpoints to meet the need for local consumption. Of this necessary commodity.
The study recommends the following:
1- Establishing an agricultural price policy that ensures the convergence of the local wheat price with the international price to encourage farmers to increase the rate of self-sufficiency in this strategic crop.
2- Addressing policies arising from the principle of economic liberalization of markets and factors of production, which is represented by high production costs and making them available at appropriate prices.
3- Adopting more protective policies on production requirements and final products, to encourage the expansion of cultivation of this crop to meet the steady increase in demand for it and increase the rate of self-sufficiency and thus limit the amount of wheat imports.